Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Last updated: …Volume: $65.6M
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Market Details
Condition ID
Status…
OutcomesYes / No
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Trade
$
≈ 11.11 shares at 90¢/share
Market price16¢
Est. you pay90¢ avg
Slippage protection: rejects fills above 91.8¢. Sizing allows for the worst case: $0.24 covers the fee and that price move, and is only spent if the fill lands there.
Est. shares11.11
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.24
Potential payout$11.11
Potential profit$1.11
Est. fee: $0.06 • Politics 4%
Paper trading only — no real money
View on PolymarketTrade Panel
Trade
$
≈ 11.11 shares at 90¢/share
Market price16¢
Est. you pay90¢ avg
Slippage protection: rejects fills above 91.8¢. Sizing allows for the worst case: $0.24 covers the fee and that price move, and is only spent if the fill lands there.
Est. shares11.11
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.24
Potential payout$11.11
Potential profit$1.11
Est. fee: $0.06 • Politics 4%
Paper trading only — no real money
View on Polymarket