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Election Market Strategies
Replay every 2020, 2022, and 2024 US election — presidential, Senate, and House races — plus global elections. Test "buy the underdog before polling day" or "fade every post-debate over-reaction."
Backtesting launching in ~2 weeks · Paper Trading live now
Prediction Market Backtesting ToolPolymarket · Kalshi · PredictIt
Test your prediction market strategy against resolved elections, crypto events, and sports outcomes — before you risk a single dollar.
While our backtesting engine ships soon, you can already build intuition on PolySimulator's live paper trading simulator — real prices, virtual money, zero risk. Unlike narrow tools that only support BTC up/down markets, PolySimulator covers elections, geopolitics, sports, and AI milestones across Polymarket and Kalshi. No API key required to get started.
Free Tier
At Launch
All Categories
Not Just BTC
What You Can Backtest
Every resolved prediction market ever traded on Polymarket or Kalshi is a data point. Here is how traders are already planning to use it.
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Crypto Event Trading
Backtest BTC, ETH, and SOL price milestone markets. Beyond simple UP/DOWN, test strategies on "Will BTC reach $100k by year-end?" and similar resolution-based crypto prediction markets at every timeframe.
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Sports Prediction Markets
NFL, NBA, soccer, and more. Test whether market odds systematically misprice home-field advantage, injury news, or playoff momentum across hundreds of historical sports prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi.
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AI & Technology Milestones
One of the fastest-growing prediction market categories. Test strategies on AI capability milestones, product launch dates, and scientific breakthroughs — markets unique to Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Geopolitical & Macro Events
Fed rate decisions, economic data releases, geopolitical conflicts, and international elections. Test systematic approaches to macro prediction markets with full historical Polymarket and Kalshi data.
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Quantitative Strategy Research
For researchers and quants: run systematic cross-market backtests, test market efficiency hypotheses, measure liquidity and spread dynamics, and build information ratios across the full Polymarket historical database.
How Prediction Market Backtesting Works
Backtesting a prediction market strategy follows the same logic as backtesting a stock or options strategy — replay historical price data with your rules and measure the outcome.
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Define Your Strategy Rules
Set entry conditions (e.g. "buy Yes when probability drops below 35% in the final 7 days"), exit conditions (e.g. "sell when probability recovers to 50%"), and position sizing (e.g. "risk 2% of bankroll per trade"). Rules can be defined visually or via the backtesting API.
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Select Your Universe of Markets
Choose which categories and time periods to test: all 2024 US elections, all Polymarket crypto markets from 2022–2024, all Kalshi Fed rate markets, or the complete cross-category history. You control the scope.
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Replay Historical Price Data
The backtesting engine replays each market using Polymarket's CLOB historical price data. Prices move as they did in real life. Initial release targets key market categories; full coverage across all categories expands as historical data collection grows.
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Measure Strategy Performance
Review your hypothetical PnL, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and full equity curve. Identify which market categories your edge works in. Then validate with live paper trading before committing real money.
Backtesting Features
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Historical Market Replay
Replay resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets using real CLOB price history. See exactly when odds moved and why — the foundation of accurate strategy simulation. Launching in the initial release.
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No-Code & API Strategy Builder
Build strategies visually with an if-this-then-that rule builder — no Python required. Developers get a full REST API for custom algorithms. Both included in the initial release.
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Quant Performance Metrics
Planned: Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, max drawdown, win rate, expectancy, and equity curve. These metrics are planned for the initial release alongside the strategy runner.
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Cross-Category Backtests
Run the same strategy across all Polymarket elections, all Kalshi crypto markets, or any custom market universe. Cross-category testing is a planned feature for the Pro tier.
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Slippage & Spread Modeling
Planned: Realistic fills using Polymarket order book depth data — not idealized prices. Spread and slippage modeling is on the roadmap for the v1 backtesting release.
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Live Today: Paper Trading
Already live: paper trade any Polymarket market in real time with $1,000 virtual balance. Build strategy intuition now and validate it with backtesting the moment the engine launches.
Example: Backtesting a 2024 Election Strategy on Polymarket
Imagine you developed a thesis during the 2024 US Presidential Election cycle: the market systematically overreacts to debate moments and poll swings, creating short-term mean-reversion opportunities.
- →Entry: Buy "Yes" on any candidate when their probability drops more than 10pp in a single day (overreaction signal).
- →Exit: Sell when probability recovers to within 3pp of the pre-drop level, or at 7 days before resolution.
- →Stop-loss: Exit if probability drops a further 15pp from entry (trend continuation signal).
- →Sizing: Fixed 2% of bankroll per trade, Kelly-adjusted for edge size.
This is the kind of strategy PolySimulator's backtesting engine is built to test. Define your rules, select the election market universe, run it — and get a PnL per trade, equity curve, and drawdown report so you know whether the edge existed before you trade it live. Launching in ~2 weeks.
PolySimulator vs PolyBackTest — Feature Comparison
PolyBackTest (polybacktest.com) covers BTC up/down markets only and charges $19/month for unlimited access. PolySimulator covers every prediction market category and is completely free.
| Feature | PolySimulator ✓ | PolyBackTest |
|---|---|---|
| Market coverage | All categories (elections, crypto, sports, AI, geo) | BTC UP/DOWN only |
| Kalshi support | ✓ Yes | ✗ No |
| Free tier | ✓ Fully free | Limited (5 days history) |
| Paper trading | ✓ Live paper trading included | ✗ Data API only |
| No-code strategy builder | ✓ Visual rule builder | ✗ API / dev only |
| Historical depth | Rolling + deep history on Pro | 24h rolling (free); unlimited (paid $19/mo) |
| Election backtesting | ✓ 2020, 2022, 2024 US + global | ✗ Not supported |
| Pricing | Free tier + Pro plans at launch | $0 limited / $19 per month pro |
Based on publicly available information as of February 2026. PolySimulator backtesting launching ~2 weeks from today. Pro tier pricing confirmed at launch.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is prediction market backtesting?▾
Prediction market backtesting is testing a trading strategy against historical resolved market data to calculate how it would have performed. You define rules — when to buy, when to sell, how much to risk — the backtester replays historical Polymarket or Kalshi price data, and you receive a full PnL and risk report.
Is PolySimulator free to use for backtesting?▾
PolySimulator launches with a free tier that includes limited backtests per day and a rolling history window — enough to validate most strategies. Pro plans unlock deeper history, higher daily run limits, CSV export, and higher API quotas. No credit card required to start on the free tier.
Can I backtest Kalshi prediction market strategies?▾
Yes. PolySimulator supports backtesting across both Polymarket and Kalshi. Both platforms use binary outcome probability markets, so the same strategy rules — entry at probability thresholds, exit at recovery targets — work identically across both.
How is this different from PolyBackTest (polybacktest.com)?▾
PolyBackTest is a paid, developer-only data API for BTC UP/DOWN markets on Polymarket — their free tier gives 24 hours of rolling history; unlimited access costs $19/month. PolySimulator is a complete platform: visual no-code strategy builder, backtesting across all market categories (elections, sports, crypto, AI, geopolitics), integrated live paper trading, and Kalshi support — with a free tier and no Python required to get started.
Do I need to know how to code to backtest my strategy?▾
No. PolySimulator includes a no-code visual strategy builder. Advanced users also have access to a full REST API for custom algorithm backtesting in Python, JavaScript, or any language.
Can I backtest the 2024 Presidential Election markets on Polymarket?▾
That is the plan. The 2024 US Presidential Election cycle is one of the most requested backtesting datasets. PolySimulator is collecting and indexing historical Polymarket election market data for the initial release. Sign up now to be notified the moment election backtesting goes live.
Get Notified When Backtesting Launches
Launching in private beta soon. Leave your email and you'll be first to know. In the meantime, paper trading is already live.
Free tier at launch · No credit card required · Covers Polymarket & Kalshi market categories
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