Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
Last updated: …Volume: $3.4K
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Market Details
Condition ID
Status…
OutcomesYes / No
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Trade
$
≈ 33.56 shares at 30¢/share
Market price28¢
Est. you pay30¢
Est. shares33.56
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.49
Potential payout$33.56
Potential profit$23.56
Est. fee: $0.27 • Tech 4%
Paper trading only — no real money
View on PolymarketTrade Panel
Trade
$
≈ 33.56 shares at 30¢/share
Market price28¢
Est. you pay30¢
Est. shares33.56
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.49
Potential payout$33.56
Potential profit$23.56
Est. fee: $0.27 • Tech 4%
Paper trading only — no real money
View on Polymarket