Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Markets
Hot

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Last updated: …Volume: $69.8M
View on Polymarket
Loading chart...

Market Details

Condition ID
Status…
OutcomesYes / No
Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Trade Panel

Trade

$

≈ 11.11 shares at 90¢/share

Market price16¢
Est. you pay90¢ avg

Slippage protection: rejects fills above 91.8¢. Sizing allows for the worst case: $0.24 covers the fee and that price move, and is only spent if the fill lands there.

Est. shares11.11
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.24
Potential payout$11.11
Potential profit$1.11
Est. fee: $0.06 • Politics 4%

Paper trading only — no real money

View on Polymarket