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Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

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Markets

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Last updated: …Volume: $741.84
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Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?View Event →
Central US (SPP)35%Midwest (MISO)19%Texas (ERCOT)6%Mid-Atlantic (PJM)16%California (CAISO)11%New England (ISO-NE)8%New York (NYISO)7%
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Market Details

Condition ID
Status…
OutcomesYes / No
Resolution Criteria

This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

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Prices shown are what you pay now. This book is 59¢ wide — Yes is 37% implied.

$

≈ 14.93 shares at 67¢/share

Market price37¢
Est. you pay67¢
Est. shares14.93
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.36
Potential payout$14.93
Potential profit$4.93
Est. fee: $0.17 • Weather / Science 5%

Paper trading only — no real money

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Prices shown are what you pay now. This book is 59¢ wide — Yes is 37% implied.

$

≈ 14.93 shares at 67¢/share

Market price37¢
Est. you pay67¢
Est. shares14.93
Cost$10.00
Max cost (incl. fee + slippage)$10.36
Potential payout$14.93
Potential profit$4.93
Est. fee: $0.17 • Weather / Science 5%

Paper trading only — no real money

View on Polymarket