
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Prices shown are what you pay now. This book is 41¢ wide — Yes is 47% implied.
≈ 14.93 shares at 67¢/share
Slippage protection: rejects fills above 68.3¢. Sizing allows for the worst case: $0.33 covers the fee and that price move, and is only spent if the fill lands there.
Paper trading only — no real money
View on PolymarketPrices shown are what you pay now. This book is 41¢ wide — Yes is 47% implied.
≈ 14.93 shares at 67¢/share
Slippage protection: rejects fills above 68.3¢. Sizing allows for the worst case: $0.33 covers the fee and that price move, and is only spent if the fill lands there.
Paper trading only — no real money
View on Polymarket